TURKEY'S 'FAILED' COUP - HOW WILL PRESIDENT ERDOGAN RESPONDS?

President Tayyip Erdogan and his government will have woken up today, feeling a great sense of relief, relief that, at least in this episode of the saga between him and his opponents, he and his government appear to have won this one.

Parts of the Turkey's military initiated what might transpire to have been a premature and not well-planned attempt to remove the government by means of a botched coup, instead of through the normal 'democratic' process, which the President has been able to skilfully engineered to consistently results in favourable outcomes for him and his Islamist Party and government.

So far, it is probably not surprising why some amongst the military might have, wrongly, concluded that a coup, though lacking in any legitimacy except for that which can be acquired or commanded out of the barrels of guns, might be the only successful method of removing the President and his ruling party.

One wonders who saw this coup coming, probably except for the intelligence services of countries such as the US, Russia, Israel, et al?  Be that as it might have been, this coup certainly has come out of the blue, as it were, for both the Turkish people and others around the world.

And, we might well wonder what are the implications of it, had it been successful, and now that it appears to have failed.  In todays world, it certainly is the case that coups are not the best or more desirable way of removing governments, as the military has this tendency of replacing one oppressive force with another which, having the arms to do so, has often proved itself to be on par with the force it removes, or even worse. 

Will it increases or decreases the chances of Turkey playing a more constructive role in the Syrian war, and stop trying to depose the Syrian Government?

As for the lessons which President Erdogan and his government are likely to have learnt from this episode, it is likely that the first will be that, he and them will feel that they cannot trust anybody, any organ of power, including his own military.  The response to this is probably likely to be a Machiavellian one of more ruthlessness than the President has hitherto displayed.  

Instead of using this tragic, but not unprecedented, episode in Turkey's history to call for greater national unity and making the country into one where the different political, religious and ethnic strands of Turkish society can feel more at home, it could be that President Erdogan will use it as a clarion call for greater repression.

He might interpret the fact that he was not made a casualty of the attempted coup, to be in some way a divine validation of his self-perceived role as Turkey's savour.

We shall have to wait and see how things will be played out in Turkey, the region, and farther afield, such as with Turkey's re-engagement with the Russian Federation, with Israel, Syria and in her relationship with the European Union

In considering how he respond to the coup, after his initial defiant response, such as, as he sees it, cleansing his armed forces, President Erdogan should be mindful of one thing, the fact that, however great and ind indispensable any leader sees themselves in their country's history, history has a way of negating it.

Secularism is to be human, which is the natural state of humans. Leave Islamism to the gods, if that is what the gods want.

If President Erdogan is prudent, he will use this as an opportunity to begin to 'heal' heal the divisions in his country, and bring the people together. That would be a more profound and durable legacy for him.