AS I SEE IT, CATALAN FOR INDEPENDENCE MIGHT BE PULLING BACK FROM THE BRINK! THE END!





That is likely to be a big ask, since it should include all of the regional governments in the discussion, and not only be limited to Catalonia and the Spanish central government.

The legitimacy of Catalan's independence referendum, quite apart from its constitutional illegality, would merit more analysis.. 

With 90 per cent of the reported 2.26 million people who voted, voting for independence, that is indeed an overwhelming endorsement of motion. 

However, considering that that 2.26 million people only constitute 42 per cent, a minority of Catalan's electorate, that is neither an overwhelming or majority endorsement of the Catalan people for seceding from the rest of Spain. 



Compare this with Britain's Brexit Referendum, when the turnout was 72 per cent of the electorate, with  52 per cent of them supporting Britain leaving the European Union, and 48 per cent voting to remain a part of the Union.

Forty-two per cent of Catalan's electorate being able to vote, and 90 per cent of them voting to secede from Spain is simply not a sufficient proportion of the electorate voting to decide take Catalans out of the Spanish State. 

For something as momentous and significant as that, it requires, a large majority of the electorate, probably not less than 70 percent votes, and an even higher proportion, say, about 80 per cent of them voting to leave.




Ninety per cent of 42 per cent would not cut it, even if the referendum was constitutional. 

It is rather ironic that, notwithstanding the constitutional legality of the British Brexit referendum, the process of giving it effect are proving as challenging and uncertain as a seceded Catalan would find them to be, if not more so.

However, let us hope that that will not be necessary, and that the pro-independence Catalans, will be persuaded not to proceed along the path of secession, division and bitterness and instability which is likely to be the nursemaids of such a momentous act. 



That they will instead continue to be an integral part of Spain and work with the other regions to make the Spanish nation stronger, more equitable and just. 

Without Catalan having to be accorded unjust 'special privileges' to keep it loyal to the rest of Spain, as, any such special privileges could lead to other regions demanding the same.

What is of vital importance, is that, any attempts by the Spanish central government to try to batter the Catalan secesionists into  submission.  

By the autocratic use of the forces of the state, and reduce this dangerous crisis to simply one of breaking 'the law' and going against 'the constitution', is unlikely to bring about an a just, peaceful and enduring settlement. 



This is because 'the law' and 'the constitution' are not sacred, they are not the recepticle of all that is true, just and impartial.' They are the codified sum of human consensus at given times in our history.
As such, they need to evolve and developed into being better and more reflective of changing circumstances.

 This is why negotiations must be the basis of the settlement of this crisis, with it informed by the 'democratically' exercised collective views of of all the people of Spain. 

With any major changes from the existing status quo, requiring a proportionate support from the electorate.

Mr Carless Puigdemont might be considered as a part of the problem, but that would also make him a potential a valuable part of the solution. He should not be demonised or make into being a martyr.





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